Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad

  1. Guayaquil City FC36%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Libertad37%

1.26 expected goals for Guayaquil City FC

1.50 expected goals for Libertad

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Libertad defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Libertad attack, which scores 36% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Guayaquil City FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Guayaquil City FC attack+19%
  3. Libertad defence−30%

Expected goals1.26

Libertad

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Libertad attack+36%
  2. Guayaquil City FC defence−19%

Expected goals1.50

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.4 for Guayaquil City FC and 4.0 for Libertad

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Guayaquil City FC and 2.4 for Libertad

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

29.8 expected

15.4 for Guayaquil City FC and 14.4 for Libertad

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

22.6 expected

10.2 for Guayaquil City FC and 12.4 for Libertad

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.