Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Emelec vs Leones del Norte

  1. Emelec42%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Leones del Norte28%

1.12 expected goals for Emelec

1.02 expected goals for Leones del Norte

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Emelec has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Leones del Norte win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Emelec defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Leones del Norte defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Emelec

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Emelec attack−7%
  3. Leones del Norte defence−20%

Expected goals1.12

Leones del Norte

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Leones del Norte attack+2%
  2. Emelec defence−27%

Expected goals1.02

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.4 for Emelec and 4.6 for Leones del Norte

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Emelec and 2.4 for Leones del Norte

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

27.2 expected

14.5 for Emelec and 12.7 for Leones del Norte

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

23.1 expected

11.5 for Emelec and 11.6 for Leones del Norte

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.