Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Leones del Norte4-1Libertad

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a Libertad win (46%).

Leones del Norte vs Libertad

  1. Leones del Norte27%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Libertad46%

0.87 expected goals for Leones del Norte

1.53 expected goals for Libertad

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Libertad has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Leones del Norte win at 27%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.9 for Leones del Norte and 4.1 for Libertad

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Leones del Norte and 2.1 for Libertad

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

28.7 expected

18.2 for Leones del Norte and 10.5 for Libertad

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.7 for Leones del Norte and 11.1 for Libertad

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.