Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Emelec0-1Guayaquil City FC

The model gave this result 30%. Its most likely result was a Emelec win (41%).

Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC

  1. Emelec41%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Guayaquil City FC30%

1.24 expected goals for Emelec

1.21 expected goals for Guayaquil City FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Emelec has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Guayaquil City FC win at 30%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.1 for Emelec and 4.2 for Guayaquil City FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for Emelec and 2.4 for Guayaquil City FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

28.8 expected

17.8 for Emelec and 11.0 for Guayaquil City FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

23.1 expected

11.6 for Emelec and 11.5 for Guayaquil City FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.