Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario

  1. Orense SC52%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Tecnico Universitario21%

1.64 expected goals for Orense SC

1.08 expected goals for Tecnico Universitario

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Orense SC has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Tecnico Universitario win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Orense SC attack, which scores 18% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Orense SC defence, which lets in 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Orense SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Orense SC attack+18%
  3. Tecnico Universitario defence−8%

Expected goals1.64

Tecnico Universitario

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tecnico Universitario attack−8%
  2. Orense SC defence−14%

Expected goals1.08

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

6.2 for Orense SC and 4.2 for Tecnico Universitario

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.6 for Orense SC and 2.5 for Tecnico Universitario

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

26.9 expected

16.4 for Orense SC and 10.5 for Tecnico Universitario

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

25.0 expected

12.5 for Orense SC and 12.5 for Tecnico Universitario

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.