Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC
- Mushuc Runa SC51%
- Draw28%
- Manta FC21%
1.50 expected goals for Mushuc Runa SC
1.03 expected goals for Manta FC
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Mushuc Runa SC has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Manta FC win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Manta FC attack, which scores 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.7 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Mushuc Runa SC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Mushuc Runa SC attack+6%
- Manta FC defence−6%
Expected goals1.50
Manta FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Manta FC attack−16%
- Mushuc Runa SC defence−9%
Expected goals1.03
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals72%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Over 3.5 goals25%
- Over 4.5 goals11%
- Both teams score49%
- Mushuc Runa SC or draw78%
- Draw or Manta FC49%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.7 expected
5.5 for Mushuc Runa SC and 4.2 for Manta FC
- Over 8.5 corners59%
- Over 9.5 corners48%
- Over 10.5 corners38%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.8 for Mushuc Runa SC and 2.5 for Manta FC
- Over 3.5 cards61%
- Over 4.5 cards42%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
23.8 expected
13.4 for Mushuc Runa SC and 10.4 for Manta FC
- Over 20.5 shots68%
- Over 22.5 shots55%
- Over 24.5 shots43%
Fouls
24.8 expected
12.1 for Mushuc Runa SC and 12.7 for Manta FC
- Over 20.5 fouls78%
- Over 22.5 fouls65%
- Over 24.5 fouls50%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.