Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca

  1. Delfin SC36%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Deportivo Cuenca33%

0.86 expected goals for Delfin SC

0.97 expected goals for Deportivo Cuenca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportivo Cuenca defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Delfin SC defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Delfin SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Delfin SC attack−14%
  3. Deportivo Cuenca defence−34%

Expected goals0.86

Deportivo Cuenca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Cuenca attack−13%
  2. Delfin SC defence−18%

Expected goals0.97

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals83%
  2. Over 1.5 goals55%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals11%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.0 for Delfin SC and 5.2 for Deportivo Cuenca

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for Delfin SC and 2.2 for Deportivo Cuenca

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

25.7 expected

14.3 for Delfin SC and 11.3 for Deportivo Cuenca

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

22.8 expected

12.0 for Delfin SC and 10.8 for Deportivo Cuenca

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.