Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Tecnico Universitario3-0Mushuc Runa SC

The model gave this result 33%. Its most likely result was a Mushuc Runa SC win (40%).

Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC

  1. Tecnico Universitario33%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Mushuc Runa SC40%

1.11 expected goals for Tecnico Universitario

1.47 expected goals for Mushuc Runa SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

4.8 for Tecnico Universitario and 5.1 for Mushuc Runa SC

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for Tecnico Universitario and 2.3 for Mushuc Runa SC

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

23.3 expected

11.4 for Tecnico Universitario and 11.8 for Mushuc Runa SC

  1. Over 20.5 shots65%
  2. Over 22.5 shots52%
  3. Over 24.5 shots40%

Fouls

23.2 expected

11.3 for Tecnico Universitario and 11.8 for Mushuc Runa SC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.