Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas

  1. Universidad Catolica55%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Aucas18%

1.60 expected goals for Universidad Catolica

0.95 expected goals for Aucas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Universidad Catolica the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Universidad Catolica defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Universidad Catolica attack, which scores 54% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Universidad Catolica

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Universidad Catolica attack+54%
  3. Aucas defence−31%

Expected goals1.60

Aucas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Aucas attack+11%
  2. Universidad Catolica defence−37%

Expected goals0.95

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.2 for Universidad Catolica and 4.1 for Aucas

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Universidad Catolica and 2.3 for Aucas

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

21.0 expected

12.2 for Universidad Catolica and 8.9 for Aucas

  1. Over 20.5 shots51%
  2. Over 22.5 shots38%
  3. Over 24.5 shots26%

Fouls

21.9 expected

10.1 for Universidad Catolica and 11.7 for Aucas

  1. Over 20.5 fouls59%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls43%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls29%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.