Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Macara vs Barcelona SC

  1. Macara49%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Barcelona SC21%

1.28 expected goals for Macara

0.86 expected goals for Barcelona SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Macara has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Barcelona SC win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Macara defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Barcelona SC defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Macara

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Macara attack+42%
  3. Barcelona SC defence−40%

Expected goals1.28

Barcelona SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Barcelona SC attack+19%
  2. Macara defence−47%

Expected goals0.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.0 for Macara and 4.7 for Barcelona SC

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.7 for Macara and 2.6 for Barcelona SC

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

25.0 expected

14.1 for Macara and 10.9 for Barcelona SC

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

23.9 expected

14.1 for Macara and 9.8 for Barcelona SC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.