Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito

  1. Independiente del Valle52%
  2. Draw27%
  3. LDU de Quito21%

1.58 expected goals for Independiente del Valle

1.07 expected goals for LDU de Quito

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Independiente del Valle has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a LDU de Quito win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Independiente del Valle attack, which scores 101% more goals than an average team. Next comes the LDU de Quito defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Independiente del Valle

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Independiente del Valle attack+101%
  3. LDU de Quito defence−48%

Expected goals1.58

LDU de Quito

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. LDU de Quito attack+46%
  2. Independiente del Valle defence−46%

Expected goals1.07

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.5 for Independiente del Valle and 4.7 for LDU de Quito

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for Independiente del Valle and 2.1 for LDU de Quito

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.0 expected

14.9 for Independiente del Valle and 12.1 for LDU de Quito

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

21.5 expected

9.7 for Independiente del Valle and 11.8 for LDU de Quito

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls27%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.