Probably Football

Matches

Copa Ecuador (Ecuador)

LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica

  1. LDU de Quito43%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Universidad Catolica29%

1.39 expected goals for LDU de Quito

1.08 expected goals for Universidad Catolica

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

LDU de Quito has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Universidad Catolica win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the LDU de Quito defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Universidad Catolica defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

LDU de Quito

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. LDU de Quito attack+41%
  3. Universidad Catolica defence−35%

Expected goals1.39

Universidad Catolica

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Universidad Catolica attack+50%
  2. LDU de Quito defence−47%

Expected goals1.08

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

6.1 for LDU de Quito and 4.0 for Universidad Catolica

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.4 for LDU de Quito and 2.6 for Universidad Catolica

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

23.6 expected

13.7 for LDU de Quito and 9.8 for Universidad Catolica

  1. Over 20.5 shots66%
  2. Over 22.5 shots54%
  3. Over 24.5 shots42%

Fouls

23.6 expected

12.4 for LDU de Quito and 11.2 for Universidad Catolica

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls57%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.