Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Rangers vs Aberdeen
- Rangers75%
- Draw14%
- Aberdeen11%
2.16 expected goals for Rangers
0.86 expected goals for Aberdeen
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Rangers the clear favourite: 75% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rangers attack, which scores 115% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Rangers defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.7 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Rangers
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Rangers attack+115%
- Aberdeen defence−33%
Expected goals2.16
Aberdeen
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Aberdeen attack+21%
- Rangers defence−48%
Expected goals0.86
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Over 3.5 goals36%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score45%
- Rangers or draw89%
- Draw or Aberdeen25%
- No draw86%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.7 expected
5.9 for Rangers and 4.8 for Aberdeen
- Over 8.5 corners68%
- Over 9.5 corners58%
- Over 10.5 corners48%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.6 for Rangers and 2.2 for Aberdeen
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards33%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
27.4 expected
16.4 for Rangers and 11.0 for Aberdeen
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots74%
- Over 24.5 shots63%
Fouls
24.2 expected
12.0 for Rangers and 12.2 for Aberdeen
- Over 20.5 fouls75%
- Over 22.5 fouls61%
- Over 24.5 fouls46%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.