Probably Football

Matches

League Cup (Scotland)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Heart Of Midlothian vs Hibernian

  1. Heart Of Midlothian53%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Hibernian27%

1.71 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian

1.14 expected goals for Hibernian

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Heart Of Midlothian has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a Hibernian win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Heart Of Midlothian attack, which scores 87% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Hibernian defence, which lets in 39% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Heart Of Midlothian

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Heart Of Midlothian attack+87%
  3. Hibernian defence−39%

Expected goals1.71

Hibernian

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hibernian attack+24%
  2. Heart Of Midlothian defence−32%

Expected goals1.14

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.5 for Heart Of Midlothian and 4.4 for Hibernian

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.3 for Heart Of Midlothian and 2.4 for Hibernian

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

27.3 expected

15.8 for Heart Of Midlothian and 11.4 for Hibernian

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.2 for Heart Of Midlothian and 13.1 for Hibernian

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.