Wednesday 28 October, 10:30
Final score
Vukovar0-4Dinamo Zagreb
The model's most likely result happened: a Dinamo Zagreb win (71%).
Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb
- Vukovar14%
- Draw15%
- Dinamo Zagreb71%
1.12 expected goals for Vukovar
2.98 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Dinamo Zagreb the clear favourite: 71% to win. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 70% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.4 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals92%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals70%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals59%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals39%It did not happen
- Both teams score55%
- Vukovar or draw29%
- Draw or Dinamo Zagreb86%
- No draw85%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.4 expected
4.9 for Vukovar and 4.5 for Dinamo Zagreb
- Over 8.5 corners56%
- Over 9.5 corners45%
- Over 10.5 corners35%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.8 for Vukovar and 2.1 for Dinamo Zagreb
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
24.0 expected
12.8 for Vukovar and 11.2 for Dinamo Zagreb
- Over 20.5 shots69%
- Over 22.5 shots56%
- Over 24.5 shots44%
Fouls
27.0 expected
11.7 for Vukovar and 15.3 for Dinamo Zagreb
- Over 20.5 fouls87%
- Over 22.5 fouls78%
- Over 24.5 fouls65%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.