Wednesday 28 October, 10:30
Final score (on penalties)
NK Varazdin1-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
The model gave this result 30%. Its most likely result was a NK Varazdin win (43%).
NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- NK Varazdin43%
- Draw30%
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb27%
1.23 expected goals for NK Varazdin
0.93 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
NK Varazdin has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win at 27%. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.0 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals88%
- Over 1.5 goals64%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Over 3.5 goals17%
- Over 4.5 goals7%
- Both teams score48%
- NK Varazdin or draw73%
- Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb57%
- No draw70%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
6.1 for NK Varazdin and 4.0 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.4 for NK Varazdin and 2.6 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards38%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
27.4 expected
16.7 for NK Varazdin and 10.7 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots73%
- Over 24.5 shots63%
Fouls
27.1 expected
12.1 for NK Varazdin and 14.9 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- Over 20.5 fouls88%
- Over 22.5 fouls78%
- Over 24.5 fouls66%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.