Probably Football

Matches

DFB Pokal (Germany)

Tuesday 27 October, 14:00

Final score

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2-4FC Augsburg

The model's most likely result happened: a FC Augsburg win (89%).

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs FC Augsburg

  1. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach6%
  2. Draw5%
  3. FC Augsburg89%

0.88 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3.50 expected goals for FC Augsburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes FC Augsburg the clear favourite: 89% to win. It expects 4.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals76%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals64%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

6.0 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 4.7 for FC Augsburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 2.3 for FC Augsburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

33.3 expected

19.1 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 14.2 for FC Augsburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots95%
  2. Over 22.5 shots91%
  3. Over 24.5 shots85%

Fouls

24.1 expected

12.1 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 12.0 for FC Augsburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.