Probably Football

Matches

DFB Pokal (Germany)

Tuesday 27 October, 14:00

Final score

1. FC Köln5-0Union Berlin

The model gave this result 33%. Its most likely result was a Union Berlin win (46%).

1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin

  1. 1. FC Köln33%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Union Berlin46%

1.46 expected goals for 1. FC Köln

1.32 expected goals for Union Berlin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Union Berlin has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a 1. FC Köln win at 33%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.0 for 1. FC Köln and 4.5 for Union Berlin

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for 1. FC Köln and 2.4 for Union Berlin

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

28.9 expected

17.3 for 1. FC Köln and 11.6 for Union Berlin

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.1 for 1. FC Köln and 11.6 for Union Berlin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.