Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund63%
Draw16%
Werder Bremen21%

1.95 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund

0.89 expected goals for Werder Bremen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Borussia Dortmund the clear favourite: 63% to win. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
Over 1.5 goals78%It happened
Over 2.5 goals60%It happened
Over 3.5 goals32%It happened
Over 4.5 goals16%It happened

Both teams score51%
Borussia Dortmund or draw79%
Draw or Werder Bremen37%
No draw84%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

6.1 for Borussia Dortmund and 4.0 for Werder Bremen

Over 8.5 corners63%
Over 9.5 corners52%
Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Borussia Dortmund and 2.1 for Werder Bremen

Over 3.5 cards55%
Over 4.5 cards35%
Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.3 expected

16.0 for Borussia Dortmund and 11.3 for Werder Bremen

Over 20.5 shots83%
Over 22.5 shots73%
Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

21.8 expected

11.0 for Borussia Dortmund and 10.7 for Werder Bremen

Over 20.5 fouls58%
Over 22.5 fouls42%
Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.