Probably Football

Matches

DFB Pokal (Germany)

Tuesday 27 October, 14:00

Final score

VfL Bochum2-0FSV Mainz 05

The model gave this result 16%. Its most likely result was a FSV Mainz 05 win (66%).

VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05

  1. VfL Bochum16%
  2. Draw18%
  3. FSV Mainz 0566%

0.94 expected goals for VfL Bochum

1.72 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes FSV Mainz 05 the clear favourite: 66% to win. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.2 for VfL Bochum and 4.2 for FSV Mainz 05

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.1 for VfL Bochum and 2.4 for FSV Mainz 05

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

27.6 expected

14.3 for VfL Bochum and 13.4 for FSV Mainz 05

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

23.6 expected

11.5 for VfL Bochum and 12.1 for FSV Mainz 05

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.