Probably Football

Matches

DFB Pokal (Germany)

Tuesday 27 October, 14:00

Final score

Bayern München6-11. FC Magdeburg

The model's most likely result happened: a Bayern München win (98%).

Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Bayern München98%
  2. Draw1%
  3. 1. FC Magdeburg1%

5.11 expected goals for Bayern München

0.96 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Bayern München the clear favourite: 98% to win. It expects 6.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 85% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals100%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals98%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals85%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals85%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals72%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

6.3 for Bayern München and 4.1 for 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Bayern München and 2.2 for 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

30.5 expected

19.9 for Bayern München and 10.6 for 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

21.0 expected

11.0 for Bayern München and 10.0 for 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls52%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls37%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.