Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  1. Universitatea Craiova46%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Egnatia Rrogozhinë31%

1.56 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova

1.30 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Universitatea Craiova has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Egnatia Rrogozhinë win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Universitatea Craiova defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Universitatea Craiova attack, which scores 22% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Universitatea Craiova

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Universitatea Craiova attack+22%
  3. Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence−15%

Expected goals1.56

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack+20%
  2. Universitatea Craiova defence−20%

Expected goals1.30

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.8 for Universitatea Craiova and 4.3 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Universitatea Craiova and 2.2 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

24.8 expected

14.0 for Universitatea Craiova and 10.8 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots49%

Fouls

24.7 expected

13.4 for Universitatea Craiova and 11.2 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.