Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 14:00

Final score

FC Thun0-1HNK Hajduk Split

The model's most likely result happened: a HNK Hajduk Split win (61%).

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

  1. FC Thun20%
  2. Draw19%
  3. HNK Hajduk Split61%

1.12 expected goals for FC Thun

2.53 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes HNK Hajduk Split the clear favourite: 61% to win. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.4 for FC Thun and 4.1 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.2 for FC Thun and 2.1 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

26.2 expected

13.9 for FC Thun and 12.3 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

28.1 expected

15.9 for FC Thun and 12.2 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 20.5 fouls91%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls83%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls72%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.