Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian

  1. FC Thun23%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Heart Of Midlothian59%

1.48 expected goals for FC Thun

2.85 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Heart Of Midlothian the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Heart Of Midlothian attack, which scores 82% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Heart Of Midlothian defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Thun

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Thun attack+40%
  3. Heart Of Midlothian defence−30%

Expected goals1.48

Heart Of Midlothian

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Heart Of Midlothian attack+82%
  2. FC Thun defence+15%

Expected goals2.85

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals67%
  4. Over 3.5 goals63%
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.4 for FC Thun and 3.9 for Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.2 for FC Thun and 2.4 for Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

28.3 expected

14.0 for FC Thun and 14.3 for Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

28.7 expected

16.8 for FC Thun and 11.8 for Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls75%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.