UEFA Europa Conference League (International)
St. Truiden vs Brann
- St. Truiden40%
- Draw22%
- Brann38%
1.69 expected goals for St. Truiden
1.73 expected goals for Brann
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Brann attack, which scores 63% more goals than an average team. Next comes the St. Truiden attack, which scores 44% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
St. Truiden
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- St. Truiden attack+44%
- Brann defence−22%
Expected goals1.69
Brann
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Brann attack+63%
- St. Truiden defence−22%
Expected goals1.73
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Over 3.5 goals44%
- Over 4.5 goals26%
- Both teams score51%
- St. Truiden or draw62%
- Draw or Brann59%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.1 for St. Truiden and 5.1 for Brann
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners43%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.9 for St. Truiden and 2.1 for Brann
- Over 3.5 cards56%
- Over 4.5 cards37%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
29.4 expected
15.2 for St. Truiden and 14.3 for Brann
- Over 20.5 shots89%
- Over 22.5 shots82%
- Over 24.5 shots73%
Fouls
23.9 expected
12.7 for St. Truiden and 11.2 for Brann
- Over 20.5 fouls73%
- Over 22.5 fouls59%
- Over 24.5 fouls44%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.