Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia

  1. Panathinaikos64%
  2. Draw22%
  3. CSKA Sofia14%

1.80 expected goals for Panathinaikos

0.81 expected goals for CSKA Sofia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Panathinaikos the clear favourite: 64% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Panathinaikos defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Panathinaikos attack, which scores 43% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Panathinaikos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Panathinaikos attack+43%
  3. CSKA Sofia defence−17%

Expected goals1.81

CSKA Sofia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. CSKA Sofia attack−14%
  2. Panathinaikos defence−31%

Expected goals0.81

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.5 for Panathinaikos and 4.8 for CSKA Sofia

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.6 for Panathinaikos and 2.6 for CSKA Sofia

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

30.9 expected

17.2 for Panathinaikos and 13.7 for CSKA Sofia

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

24.6 expected

11.8 for Panathinaikos and 12.8 for CSKA Sofia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.