Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 11:45

Final score

Pafos1-1Riga

The model gave this result 23%. Its most likely result was a Pafos win (56%).

Pafos vs Riga

  1. Pafos56%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Riga21%

1.69 expected goals for Pafos

1.02 expected goals for Riga

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Pafos the clear favourite: 56% to win. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.3 for Pafos and 5.5 for Riga

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

5.0 expected

2.4 for Pafos and 2.6 for Riga

  1. Over 3.5 cards73%
  2. Over 4.5 cards56%
  3. Over 5.5 cards38%

Shots

26.3 expected

14.1 for Pafos and 12.2 for Riga

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

27.7 expected

13.9 for Pafos and 13.7 for Riga

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls70%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.