Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 14:00

Final score

Monaco3-0SC Freiburg

The model gave this result 38%. Its most likely result was a SC Freiburg win (41%).

Monaco vs SC Freiburg

  1. Monaco38%
  2. Draw21%
  3. SC Freiburg41%

1.73 expected goals for Monaco

1.91 expected goals for SC Freiburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

4.4 for Monaco and 4.9 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Monaco and 2.0 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

25.6 expected

11.3 for Monaco and 14.2 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

23.8 expected

12.3 for Monaco and 11.5 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.