Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 14:00

Final score

FC Midtjylland0-1St. Truiden

The model gave this result 4%. Its most likely result was a FC Midtjylland win (85%).

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

  1. FC Midtjylland85%
  2. Draw11%
  3. St. Truiden4%

3.06 expected goals for FC Midtjylland

0.77 expected goals for St. Truiden

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes FC Midtjylland the clear favourite: 85% to win. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

4.7 for FC Midtjylland and 4.5 for St. Truiden

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for FC Midtjylland and 2.1 for St. Truiden

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

25.3 expected

13.4 for FC Midtjylland and 11.9 for St. Truiden

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

23.4 expected

10.8 for FC Midtjylland and 12.7 for St. Truiden

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.