Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

FC Midtjylland vs Ajax

  1. FC Midtjylland59%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Ajax21%

2.12 expected goals for FC Midtjylland

1.30 expected goals for Ajax

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Midtjylland the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Midtjylland attack, which scores 140% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Midtjylland defence, which lets in 57% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Midtjylland

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Midtjylland attack+140%
  3. Ajax defence−41%

Expected goals2.13

Ajax

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ajax attack+123%
  2. FC Midtjylland defence−57%

Expected goals1.30

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.6 for FC Midtjylland and 4.1 for Ajax

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for FC Midtjylland and 2.2 for Ajax

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

28.7 expected

15.2 for FC Midtjylland and 13.5 for Ajax

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.7 for FC Midtjylland and 11.6 for Ajax

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.