Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris

  1. FC Lugano85%
  2. Draw12%
  3. Kauno Žalgiris3%

3.03 expected goals for FC Lugano

0.64 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Lugano the clear favourite: 85% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Lugano attack, which scores 97% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Lugano defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Lugano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Lugano attack+97%
  3. Kauno Žalgiris defence+2%

Expected goals3.03

Kauno Žalgiris

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kauno Žalgiris attack−23%
  2. FC Lugano defence−38%

Expected goals0.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals50%
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.2 for FC Lugano and 4.3 for Kauno Žalgiris

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for FC Lugano and 2.4 for Kauno Žalgiris

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

44.1 expected

35.3 for FC Lugano and 8.8 for Kauno Žalgiris

  1. Over 20.5 shots98%
  2. Over 22.5 shots96%
  3. Over 24.5 shots93%

Fouls

22.5 expected

10.4 for FC Lugano and 12.1 for Kauno Žalgiris

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.