Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Lincoln Red Imps FC10%
  2. Draw16%
  3. HNK Hajduk Split74%

0.67 expected goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC

2.89 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes HNK Hajduk Split the clear favourite: 74% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the HNK Hajduk Split attack, which scores 83% more goals than an average team. Next comes the HNK Hajduk Split defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lincoln Red Imps FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lincoln Red Imps FC attack−22%
  3. HNK Hajduk Split defence−43%

Expected goals0.67

HNK Hajduk Split

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. HNK Hajduk Split attack+83%
  2. Lincoln Red Imps FC defence+16%

Expected goals2.89

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals48%
  5. Over 4.5 goals29%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.0 for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 5.0 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.3 for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 2.4 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

25.8 expected

10.6 for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 15.2 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

29.8 expected

15.7 for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 14.1 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls89%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls81%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.