Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

KuPS vs Gent

  1. KuPS21%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Gent52%

0.65 expected goals for KuPS

1.39 expected goals for Gent

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Gent has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a KuPS win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Gent defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the KuPS attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 41%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

KuPS

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. KuPS attack−18%
  3. Gent defence−48%

Expected goals0.65

Gent

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gent attack+20%
  2. KuPS defence−14%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.3 for KuPS and 4.0 for Gent

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for KuPS and 2.2 for Gent

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

30.7 expected

14.2 for KuPS and 16.5 for Gent

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

24.8 expected

13.8 for KuPS and 10.9 for Gent

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.