Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 11:45

Final score

Getafe2-5FC Lugano

The model's most likely result happened: a FC Lugano win (38%).

Getafe vs FC Lugano

  1. Getafe34%
  2. Draw28%
  3. FC Lugano38%

0.92 expected goals for Getafe

1.10 expected goals for FC Lugano

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals5%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

4.6 for Getafe and 5.3 for FC Lugano

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.3 for Getafe and 2.3 for FC Lugano

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

28.1 expected

11.3 for Getafe and 16.8 for FC Lugano

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

25.1 expected

13.4 for Getafe and 11.7 for FC Lugano

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.