Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 14:00

Final score

SC Braga2-0Gent

The model's most likely result happened: a SC Braga win (44%).

SC Braga vs Gent

  1. SC Braga44%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Gent27%

1.04 expected goals for SC Braga

0.80 expected goals for Gent

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

SC Braga has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Gent win at 27%. It expects 1.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 40%. And about 8.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals83%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals55%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals11%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.8 expected

5.1 for SC Braga and 3.7 for Gent

  1. Over 8.5 corners49%
  2. Over 9.5 corners39%
  3. Over 10.5 corners29%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for SC Braga and 2.3 for Gent

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

23.8 expected

13.6 for SC Braga and 10.2 for Gent

  1. Over 20.5 shots68%
  2. Over 22.5 shots55%
  3. Over 24.5 shots43%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.0 for SC Braga and 11.9 for Gent

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.