Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Aarhus vs SC Braga

  1. Aarhus47%
  2. Draw25%
  3. SC Braga28%

1.38 expected goals for Aarhus

1.05 expected goals for SC Braga

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Aarhus has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a SC Braga win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the SC Braga defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Aarhus defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Aarhus

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Aarhus attack+85%
  3. SC Braga defence−51%

Expected goals1.38

SC Braga

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SC Braga attack+47%
  2. Aarhus defence−48%

Expected goals1.05

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.8 for Aarhus and 5.0 for SC Braga

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Aarhus and 2.2 for SC Braga

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

26.0 expected

10.8 for Aarhus and 15.1 for SC Braga

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

25.0 expected

12.2 for Aarhus and 12.8 for SC Braga

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.