UEFA Europa League (International)
Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia
- Torreense56%
- Draw22%
- Ararat-Armenia22%
1.62 expected goals for Torreense
0.92 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Torreense the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Torreense defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Torreense
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Torreense attack+5%
- Ararat-Armenia defence+2%
Expected goals1.62
Ararat-Armenia
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Ararat-Armenia attack−2%
- Torreense defence−31%
Expected goals0.92
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals73%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Over 3.5 goals25%
- Over 4.5 goals11%
- Both teams score51%
- Torreense or draw78%
- Draw or Ararat-Armenia44%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.5 expected
5.6 for Torreense and 4.9 for Ararat-Armenia
- Over 8.5 corners66%
- Over 9.5 corners56%
- Over 10.5 corners46%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.1 for Torreense and 2.5 for Ararat-Armenia
- Over 3.5 cards68%
- Over 4.5 cards49%
- Over 5.5 cards32%
Shots
27.7 expected
13.5 for Torreense and 14.2 for Ararat-Armenia
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots75%
- Over 24.5 shots65%
Fouls
28.1 expected
14.3 for Torreense and 13.8 for Ararat-Armenia
- Over 20.5 fouls91%
- Over 22.5 fouls83%
- Over 24.5 fouls72%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.