Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Sunderland39%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Dinamo Zagreb38%

1.28 expected goals for Sunderland

1.36 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Dinamo Zagreb attack, which scores 90% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Sunderland defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 8.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sunderland

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sunderland attack+37%
  3. Dinamo Zagreb defence−38%

Expected goals1.28

Dinamo Zagreb

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Dinamo Zagreb attack+90%
  2. Sunderland defence−47%

Expected goals1.36

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.7 expected

4.7 for Sunderland and 4.0 for Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Over 8.5 corners49%
  2. Over 9.5 corners38%
  3. Over 10.5 corners29%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.5 for Sunderland and 2.1 for Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

26.6 expected

12.9 for Sunderland and 13.7 for Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

25.3 expected

12.0 for Sunderland and 13.3 for Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.