Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 11:45

Final score

Sturm Graz1-0Marseille

The model gave this result 28%. Its most likely result was a Marseille win (50%).

Sturm Graz vs Marseille

  1. Sturm Graz28%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Marseille50%

0.92 expected goals for Sturm Graz

1.58 expected goals for Marseille

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Marseille has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Sturm Graz win at 28%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

4.9 for Sturm Graz and 4.8 for Marseille

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.9 for Sturm Graz and 1.9 for Marseille

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

29.6 expected

17.5 for Sturm Graz and 12.1 for Marseille

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

24.5 expected

12.7 for Sturm Graz and 11.8 for Marseille

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.