Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Sturm Graz vs Celje

  1. Sturm Graz50%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Celje27%

1.39 expected goals for Sturm Graz

0.96 expected goals for Celje

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Sturm Graz has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Celje win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sturm Graz defence, which lets in 45% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Celje attack, which scores 29% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sturm Graz

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sturm Graz attack−6%
  3. Celje defence−2%

Expected goals1.39

Celje

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Celje attack+29%
  2. Sturm Graz defence−45%

Expected goals0.96

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.5 for Sturm Graz and 4.5 for Celje

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for Sturm Graz and 2.5 for Celje

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

27.2 expected

15.2 for Sturm Graz and 12.1 for Celje

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

24.8 expected

13.2 for Sturm Graz and 11.6 for Celje

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.