Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia

  1. NEC Nijmegen44%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Omonia Nicosia33%

1.42 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen

1.25 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

NEC Nijmegen has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Omonia Nicosia win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Omonia Nicosia defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the NEC Nijmegen attack, which scores 52% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

NEC Nijmegen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. NEC Nijmegen attack+52%
  3. Omonia Nicosia defence−38%

Expected goals1.42

Omonia Nicosia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Omonia Nicosia attack+20%
  2. NEC Nijmegen defence−23%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

6.3 for NEC Nijmegen and 3.6 for Omonia Nicosia

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.1 for Omonia Nicosia

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

27.7 expected

16.5 for NEC Nijmegen and 11.2 for Omonia Nicosia

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

23.0 expected

12.6 for NEC Nijmegen and 10.4 for Omonia Nicosia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.