Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad

Lillestrom35%
Draw20%
Real Sociedad45%

1.50 expected goals for Lillestrom

1.89 expected goals for Real Sociedad

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Real Sociedad has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a Lillestrom win at 35%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
Over 3.5 goals44%It happened
Over 4.5 goals25%It happened

Both teams score52%
Lillestrom or draw55%
Draw or Real Sociedad65%
No draw80%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.8 for Lillestrom and 5.0 for Real Sociedad

Over 8.5 corners69%
Over 9.5 corners59%
Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.8 for Lillestrom and 2.5 for Real Sociedad

Over 3.5 cards62%
Over 4.5 cards43%
Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

29.2 expected

15.2 for Lillestrom and 14.0 for Real Sociedad

Over 20.5 shots88%
Over 22.5 shots81%
Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.6 for Lillestrom and 12.8 for Real Sociedad

Over 20.5 fouls76%
Over 22.5 fouls62%
Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.