Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 11:45

Final score

Juventus2-2Rennes

The model gave this result 20%. Its most likely result was a Juventus win (51%).

Juventus vs Rennes

  1. Juventus51%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Rennes29%

1.98 expected goals for Juventus

1.48 expected goals for Rennes

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Juventus has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a Rennes win at 29%. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.4 for Juventus and 4.5 for Rennes

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Juventus and 2.1 for Rennes

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

27.3 expected

15.0 for Juventus and 12.3 for Rennes

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

23.3 expected

11.7 for Juventus and 11.6 for Rennes

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.