Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 14:00

Final score

Jagiellonia0-3Anderlecht

The model gave this result 34%. Its most likely result was a Jagiellonia win (43%).

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht

  1. Jagiellonia43%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Anderlecht34%

1.30 expected goals for Jagiellonia

1.18 expected goals for Anderlecht

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Jagiellonia has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Anderlecht win at 34%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.6 for Jagiellonia and 5.2 for Anderlecht

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.7 for Jagiellonia and 2.7 for Anderlecht

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

27.0 expected

10.5 for Jagiellonia and 16.6 for Anderlecht

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

25.0 expected

12.4 for Jagiellonia and 12.6 for Anderlecht

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.