Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI

  1. Hapoel Beer Sheva44%
  2. Draw25%
  3. OFI31%

1.16 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.97 expected goals for OFI

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Hapoel Beer Sheva has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a OFI win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Hapoel Beer Sheva defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the OFI defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hapoel Beer Sheva

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hapoel Beer Sheva attack−3%
  3. OFI defence−21%

Expected goals1.16

OFI

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. OFI attack+5%
  2. Hapoel Beer Sheva defence−32%

Expected goals0.97

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.6 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 4.0 for OFI

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.7 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 2.1 for OFI

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

29.0 expected

18.7 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 10.4 for OFI

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

24.4 expected

13.0 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 11.4 for OFI

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.