Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Celtic vs Beşiktaş

  1. Celtic58%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Beşiktaş23%

2.18 expected goals for Celtic

1.33 expected goals for Beşiktaş

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Celtic the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Celtic attack, which scores 117% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Celtic defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Celtic

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Celtic attack+117%
  3. Beşiktaş defence−34%

Expected goals2.18

Beşiktaş

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Beşiktaş attack+52%
  2. Celtic defence−36%

Expected goals1.33

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.4 for Celtic and 4.8 for Beşiktaş

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for Celtic and 2.1 for Beşiktaş

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

31.8 expected

15.3 for Celtic and 16.5 for Beşiktaş

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

22.8 expected

13.4 for Celtic and 9.4 for Beşiktaş

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.