Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Benfica vs Lech Poznan

  1. Benfica83%
  2. Draw12%
  3. Lech Poznan5%

3.51 expected goals for Benfica

0.99 expected goals for Lech Poznan

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Benfica the clear favourite: 83% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Benfica attack, which scores 205% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Benfica defence, which lets in 59% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Benfica

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Benfica attack+205%
  3. Lech Poznan defence−24%

Expected goals3.51

Lech Poznan

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Lech Poznan attack+76%
  2. Benfica defence−59%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals94%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals66%
  5. Over 4.5 goals47%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.8 for Benfica and 4.4 for Lech Poznan

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.4 for Benfica and 2.3 for Lech Poznan

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

32.2 expected

21.8 for Benfica and 10.4 for Lech Poznan

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

24.1 expected

12.4 for Benfica and 11.7 for Lech Poznan

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.