UEFA Europa League (International)
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus
- AZ Alkmaar40%
- Draw22%
- Juventus38%
1.30 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar
1.36 expected goals for Juventus
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Juventus defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Juventus attack, which scores 83% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.0 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
AZ Alkmaar
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- AZ Alkmaar attack+73%
- Juventus defence−50%
Expected goals1.30
Juventus
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Juventus attack+83%
- AZ Alkmaar defence−45%
Expected goals1.36
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score52%
- AZ Alkmaar or draw62%
- Draw or Juventus60%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
5.4 for AZ Alkmaar and 4.5 for Juventus
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.7 for AZ Alkmaar and 2.1 for Juventus
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards33%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
25.0 expected
13.9 for AZ Alkmaar and 11.1 for Juventus
- Over 20.5 shots74%
- Over 22.5 shots62%
- Over 24.5 shots50%
Fouls
24.0 expected
11.8 for AZ Alkmaar and 12.3 for Juventus
- Over 20.5 fouls74%
- Over 22.5 fouls60%
- Over 24.5 fouls45%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.