Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar

Ararat-Armenia18%
Draw19%
AZ Alkmaar63%

0.87 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia

2.43 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes AZ Alkmaar the clear favourite: 63% to win. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 11.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
Over 1.5 goals85%It happened
Over 2.5 goals57%It happened
Over 3.5 goals42%It happened
Over 4.5 goals24%It did not happen

Both teams score52%
Ararat-Armenia or draw37%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar82%
No draw81%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.4 expected

5.2 for Ararat-Armenia and 6.2 for AZ Alkmaar

Over 8.5 corners73%
Over 9.5 corners64%
Over 10.5 corners55%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Ararat-Armenia and 2.5 for AZ Alkmaar

Over 3.5 cards67%
Over 4.5 cards48%
Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

30.0 expected

12.3 for Ararat-Armenia and 17.6 for AZ Alkmaar

Over 20.5 shots89%
Over 22.5 shots83%
Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

25.4 expected

11.7 for Ararat-Armenia and 13.7 for AZ Alkmaar

Over 20.5 fouls81%
Over 22.5 fouls69%
Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.