UEFA Europa League (International)
Thursday 22 October, 11:45
Final score
Ararat-Armenia0-4AZ Alkmaar
The model's most likely result happened: a AZ Alkmaar win (63%).
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
- Ararat-Armenia18%
- Draw19%
- AZ Alkmaar63%
0.87 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia
2.43 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes AZ Alkmaar the clear favourite: 63% to win. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 11.4 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals85%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals57%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals42%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals24%It did not happen
- Both teams score52%
- Ararat-Armenia or draw37%
- Draw or AZ Alkmaar82%
- No draw81%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.4 expected
5.2 for Ararat-Armenia and 6.2 for AZ Alkmaar
- Over 8.5 corners73%
- Over 9.5 corners64%
- Over 10.5 corners55%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.0 for Ararat-Armenia and 2.5 for AZ Alkmaar
- Over 3.5 cards67%
- Over 4.5 cards48%
- Over 5.5 cards31%
Shots
30.0 expected
12.3 for Ararat-Armenia and 17.6 for AZ Alkmaar
- Over 20.5 shots89%
- Over 22.5 shots83%
- Over 24.5 shots74%
Fouls
25.4 expected
11.7 for Ararat-Armenia and 13.7 for AZ Alkmaar
- Over 20.5 fouls81%
- Over 22.5 fouls69%
- Over 24.5 fouls55%
Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.